US CPI data for Aug-23 inched up at 3.71% (Headline CPI, Y/Y%) from 3.30% seen for July-23. But no major movement is seen on the Dollar index which has scope to rise above 105 in the near term. Euro also has scope to fall below 1.07 while below 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY can trade within 146-148 and 159-156 respectively. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.6350-0.65 and 1.24-1.26 region. USDCNY could rise to 7.30 above support at 7.2630. USDRUB is fluctuating highly within 92.50-98 amongst the war situation where news of fresh attacks from Ukraine to Russia hit the news headlines. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly towards 89.50 or higher. USDINR can rise to 83.10 while above 82.80. Also watch ECB Policy statement today to see if the central bank talks of continued rate hikes or pause as hinted in July-23.
The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the inflation data release. The US Headline CPI rose to 3.71% (from 3.3%) in August while the Core CPI came down to 4.39% (from 4.7%). Supports are there to limit the downside in the yields and keep the broader uptrend intact. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish to see more rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down sharply. But supports can limit the downside and take them higher again. Overall outlook is bullish.
Dow Jones struggles to gain momentum and looks vulnerable for a fall towards its support again. DAX is coming down towards the lower end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty has risen well above 20000 and remains bullish to target its key resistance in the near term. Nikkei is currently testing its resistance at 33000. Need to see if it holds or breaks higher. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.
Brent and WTI remains bullish to see a test of $95 and $92 respectively before a fall back can be seen from there. Gold has scope to test immediate support at 1920 before a bounce back can happen. Silver has come down towards its lower end of the range. Natural gas is hovering below the interim resistance at 2.80. But bias is positive to see a break above 2.8 while above the support at 2.5.
