The Dollar Index may continue trade within the narrow region of 106-106.7, Euro has a fair chance of rising towards 1.0650 if it sustains above 1.06. EURJPY failed to rise past 159 and can trade within 157-159 while USDJPY continues to remain flat below 150. USDCNY dipped slightly after testing 7.3230 on the upside; can be bullish above 7.30.
Pound and Aussie may trade within the range of 1.21-1.2250 & 0.62-0.64 respectively. USDRUB has dipped below its support of 96, revised range could be 98-94. USDINR needs to sustain the fall seen last week to fall to 82.90 else can rise back towards 83.30 again. EURINR can fall to 87.50 or lower while below 88.25/88.00.
The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday. A further fall from here can trigger a correction this week. The German yields have also dipped slightly. But broadly the view remains bullish. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting outcome is due on Thursday this week. There is room to rise further before a corrective fall begins. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow range for some time.
Dow Jones, Nifty and Nikkei look vulnerable to fall towards their support level. Dax might see a corrective bounce from 14700. Shanghai has declined further, breaking below 2985 but has long term supports coming at 2950-2900 which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there.
Brent and WTI have declined as the resistance at $94-95 and $90 respectively have held well. Outlook is bearish for crude prices for the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen back from friday’s high but have immediate support which may hold and keep the overall uptrend intact.
Copper looks vulnerable to test its lower end of the range. Natural gas continues to fall and has scope to test its immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen.
