The Dollar Index may test 105.50-105.80 before falling again, while the Euro may try to rally back towards 1.08 while above 1.07. EURJPY has fallen from 161 and can go lower for a few days before rallying back to 162. USDJPY has risen above 150 and may test 151+ levels soon. Aussie could test 0.6450 before moving higher again while Pound looks bearish below 1.24. USDCNY could rise to 7.30 before falling back towards 7.26/25. USDRUB could trade within the 94.50-91.40 range. USDINR could continue to trade within 83.10-83.30. EURINR has rallied well and may head towards 90-91.
US Treasury yields have rallied. If this continues, further upside is possible. We will have to wait and see. German yields have also bounced back well. A strong follow through rise will negate the chances of a further fall and take them higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain lower and look vulnerable to further falls.
Dow Jones remained stable but needs a break above 34200 to further strengthen the momentum otherwise a fall cannot be negated. DAX and Nifty upside looks capped at 15400-15500 and 19500-19600 respectively. Nikkei has pulled back but is likely to find support at 32000-31500. Shanghai outlook remains bullish while above 3025.
Brent and WTI are hovering above their key support. We will have to see if crude prices manage to bounce back or break lower. Gold has fallen towards 1980 and looks vulnerable to further declines in the near term. Silver has also fallen back, but is likely to remain range bound as long as it remains above support at 22.50. Copper has fallen and failed to break above resistance at 3.73. Natural gas broke below the lower end of the range and looks bearish to fall further from here.
