The Dollar Index could hold below 106 and take the Euro up towards 1.07 before a reversal is seen. EURJPY needs to sustain a rise above 162 to head towards 163/165 while USDJPY is also heading towards key resistance at 152, a break above which if seen will be surprisingly bullish, otherwise can see an expected decline towards 151/150. The Aussie is strongly bearish for a fall to 0.63, but the pound may see a short bounce from 1.22 now before eventually falling towards 1.21. USDCNY may rise slowly towards 7.30/32. USDRUB may trade in the 93-90 range in the near term. USDINR saw a rise to 83.45 after an outage on the Refinitiv FX trading platform and could open with a gap down today in the presence of RBI to trade near 83.30/20 again. EURINR may trade between 89.50-88.50 this week.
US Treasury yields remain steady. A further rise from here seems possible this week. Overall, yields may consolidate in a range for some time. The release of the US CPI data tomorrow will be important to watch. German yields have continued to rise. As long as they maintain this momentum, further gains could be seen this week. The 10Yr GoI has an immediate resistance that needs to be broken to move higher. The 5Yr GoI, on the other hand, has room to rise as the resistance is slightly away from current levels.
Dow Jones has risen well above 34200 and needs a strong follow through from here to strengthen the momentum. DAX outlook is bearish while below resistance at 15400-15500. Nifty closed above 19500 in Muhurat trading session but needs to break above 19600 resistance to negate our bearish view. Nikkei has moved higher keeping our bullish view intact. Shanghai remains subdued but as long as it remains above the support at 3025, the view will remain bullish.
Crude oil and natural gas have bounced back well as support at $79-78.5 (Brent), $75-74 (WTI) and 3.0-2.9 (natural gas) respectively held well as expected. Gold, silver and copper continue to fall and have room to fall towards their immediate support.
