Currencies are trading strong against the falling dollar, which could continue for the rest of the month as the dollar index heads towards 102.50-102. The euro needs to break above 1.10 to move higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can fall to 160 and 146/145 respectively, while Aussie and Pound look bullish for a potential rise to 0.66/67 and 1.26/28. USDRUB can bounce as long as it stays above 88. USDCNY is bearish at 7.10/7.05. EURINR has room to rise slowly towards 92 before reversing from there, while USDINR seems to be breaking above 83.30, contrary to the global currency strength seen against the US Dollar. There is no positive impact on the Rupee so far, as the RBI clearly seems to be controlling the movement. Instead, a break above 83.30/35 if sustained could take it towards fresh resistance at 83.50.
US Treasury yields have fallen and are near their key supports. A break below the support could drag them lower in the coming days. German yields have room to fall further from here before turning higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced back. The 10Yr has resistance that can cap the upside and bring it back down. The 5Yr on the other hand looks mixed as it is back in its former sideways range.
Dow Jones can test 35400-35500 on the upside. DAX has dipped slightly but the broader outlook remains bullish. Nifty can trade in 19500-19850 range for some time. Nikkei seems to be turning lower and can fall as long as it remains below resistance at 33500. Shanghai has rallied further and remains bullish to target further highs.
Brent has risen above its resistance and looks bullish to go higher from here, while WTI is trying to rise above its resistance and has room to target the next major resistance in the near term. Gold and silver have bounced back, keeping our overall bullish view intact. Copper is heading towards 3.85 which, if held, could lead to a fall back towards 3.75. Natural gas continues to fall and has room to test 2.8-2.7 before a bounce can occur.
