Markets seem to be betting on 6 rate cuts by the FED in 2024 as sentiment for the first rate cut in March intensifies, dragging the dollar index down to levels below 101. The Euro has risen to 1.11+ which, if sustained, can rise to 1.12 before falling from there. EURJPY fell from 158.56 and may now head towards 157/156 while USDJPY is falling towards 141 as expected. Aussie is bullish towards 0.69 where a rejection is possible. Pound continues to inch higher, breaking above 1.28 and could test weekly resistance at 1.29 before breaking down. USDCNY fell towards 7.10/09. An immediate range of 7.09-7.15 may hold. USDRUB fluctuates within the 94-89 range as expected. USDINR may appreciate within the 83.00-83.40 range. EURINR is trading above 92 due to a stronger euro. It may continue higher for some time before falling back to 92 or lower.
US Treasury yields continue to fall. The bearish view is intact and further declines are on the cards. German yields have fallen sharply and are coming down in line with our expectations. View remains bearish. The 10yr GoI is in a corrective uptrend. Resistance may cap the upside and keep the downtrend intact. The 5Yr GoI is stuck in its narrow range. The bias is negative for the yield to breach the range on the downside and fall further.
Dow Jones continues to rise and remains bullish to target new highs. DAX is bullish as long as it holds above 16600-16500. Nifty has some resistance ahead which if broken can extend the uptrend further. Shanghai has bounced sharply towards the upper end of the range and a break on the upside, if seen, can be bullish in the coming sessions. Nikkei may be range bound for a while.
Crude oil has pulled back but may find support at $78 and $72. Gold has entered the key resistance zone. Silver has risen within its sideways range and needs a decisive break to the upside to strengthen the bullish momentum. Copper has broken above the upper end of its range and, as expected, is targeting its key resistance. Natural gas may be range bound as long as it remains below 2.60.
