As we bid farewell to another year filled with market twists and turns, we extend our warmest gratitude to all our Morning Briefing readers for joining us on this financial journey. Wishing you a prosperous New Year ahead, may it be marked by financial success and delightful surprises. The Morning Briefing will resume on January 2, 2024, allowing everyone to momentarily set aside market concerns and embrace the holiday spirit.
On this final trading day of the year, profit-taking activities are evident across various markets. The Dollar Index has rebounded from 100.80, signaling a correction following yesterday’s false break below 101. Meanwhile, the Euro encountered profit-taking near 1.1139, hindering its ascent towards the anticipated 1.12 level. In the currency pairs, EURJPY is within the 159–156 range, and USDJPY appears stable above 140-141, potentially experiencing a modest rise to 142/143. Aussie faces resilient resistance at 0.69, Pound struggles to sustain gains past 1.28, and USDCNY hovers near the mentioned target of 7.09, with the possibility of a reversal or a further decline towards 7.05. USDRUB has sharply declined and may test 88-87, while USDINR on the NDF has retraced significantly after yesterday’s higher close on OTC markets, with expectations of a rise back towards 83.20 or higher. After reaching 92.66, EURINR retreats towards 92-91.50.
In the bond markets, both US Treasury and German yields have rebounded, suggesting a potential corrective rise in the near term. However, formidable resistances pose a challenge, possibly maintaining the overall downtrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr Government of India bonds have seen an upward trajectory in recent days, indicating room for further ascent before the broader downtrend resumes.
Equity markets exhibit varied prospects as Dow Jones and Nifty may test key resistance levels before a corrective downturn. DAX and Nikkei appear range-bound, while Shanghai projects a bullish trend with potential upward movement towards 3000.
The energy market concludes the year with crude prices on a downward spiral, influenced by tensions in the Red Sea shipping routes, a reported decline in US barrel counts by the EIA on Thursday, and the announcement of Angola’s departure from OPEC. In the precious metals sector, gold retreats as the resistance at 2100 holds strong, while silver approaches the lower end of its range, prompting speculation about a potential break below. Copper returns to its 3.95-3.85 range, and natural gas presents a mixed outlook.
As we close the chapter on this year’s market activities, uncertainties persist, keeping investors on their toes as they prepare for the challenges and opportunities that the coming year may bring.
