The AUD/USD pair hovered around 0.6435 on Thursday as the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to struggle, weighed down by disappointing economic data from Australia. The Australian economy grew by just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, falling short of the expected 0.4% expansion. Year-on-year (YoY) growth also slowed to 0.8%, well below the forecasted 1%. The weak GDP print has led markets to adjust expectations for rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), now anticipating potential rate cuts as early as April 2025, ahead of previous projections for May.
On the US side, the USD also found itself under pressure, reflecting weaker-than-expected labor market data ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for November. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance on neutral rates, as signs of economic resilience persist in the US. Additionally, the latest US jobless claims data revealed an unexpected rise, with weekly Initial Jobless Claims surging to 224,000, above both the prior week’s 213,000 and the consensus estimate of 215,000. Meanwhile, Challenger Job Cuts for November increased to 57,727, signaling a rise in layoffs.
Despite these soft labor market figures, the USD remained under pressure, leaving investors to await the November NFP report, which could provide more clarity and potentially trigger a rebound for the USD and impact the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Persists
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair remains entrenched in a bearish trend, with momentum indicators suggesting further downside potential. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is firmly in negative territory, approaching the oversold zone, signaling sustained selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The pair is currently holding near the critical 0.6400 support level, with a break below this level likely to open the door for further declines. On the upside, any recovery attempts are expected to encounter resistance around 0.6500, with stronger barriers near 0.6550.
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