In European trading on Wednesday (Oct 19), / choppy, temporarily traded at 149.13, down 0.01%.
Huatai Securities analysis, may choose step adjustment exit YCC, the possible adjustment point is early next year.
Japan’s exit from the YCC could exacerbate the pace of tightening global financial conditions and higher funding costs, adding downward pressure on growth.
Under the hawkish stance of focusing on controlling inflation and “raising interest rates soon” in the short term, the interest rate spread between Japan and Japan is likely to widen further. Therefore, the yen may not appreciate in the early stage when the Bank of Japan exits YCC.
In the short term may continue to rise in the background, yen weakness may spread to other Asian countries in the short term continue to pressure.
Competitive devaluations by other Asian countries cannot be ruled out;
The long end will not peak until the Fed‘s hawkish stance returns to neutral.
And until the BOJ does not fully exit the YCC, there may still be further upward pressure on JGBS;
If the boj’s exit from the YCC further drives a global interest rate spiral at a time of accelerating tightening of global dollar liquidity, it will further intensify the pace of tightening of global financial conditions and increase downward pressure on global growth.
Usd/JPY fell 2000 points in a day, so another 125 is possible, so we bounce back to new highs keep shorting the stops at 80 points.
