The EUR/USD pair failed to sustain a bullish push past the 1.0850 level on Monday, starting the trading week on a cautious note. Investors remain wary as the U.S. prepares to roll out a new wave of tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Trump’s Tariff Plans Weigh on Markets
Set to take effect on April 2, the proposed U.S. tariffs are expected to impact nearly all major trading partners. While specific details remain unclear, key measures include “reciprocal” tariffs on countries that impose import duties on U.S. goods, regardless of their economic situation. Additional retaliatory tariffs targeting Canada and the European Union, as well as potential blanket tariffs on copper and automobiles, add to global trade tensions.
Key Economic Data in Focus
In Europe, inflation data will take center stage this week, with the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) set for release on Wednesday. Analysts expect inflation across the eurozone to remain stable, with little deviation from previous trends.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due later this week. The data will be closely watched for signs of how the labor market is reacting to the new tariff environment, potentially setting the tone for future monetary policy decisions.
EUR/USD Outlook: Stuck in a Technical Deadlock
EUR/USD remains caught in a technical stalemate, with bullish momentum unable to sustain a breakout while selling pressure remains insufficient to drive prices below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), just below the 1.0700 level.
Although the pair managed to snap a short-term losing streak, technical indicators suggest that a strong continuation pattern is unlikely. Instead, market participants are likely to remain focused on geopolitical developments, particularly the unfolding U.S. tariff policies, which could dictate the next major move for the euro-dollar exchange rate.
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