The AUD/USD pair remained around the 0.6270 region during Tuesday’s American session, showing a modest rebound following the Reserve Bank of Australia‘s (RBA) decision to keep the Official Cash Rate at 4.10%. While the central bank‘s move was in line with expectations, it provided no clear guidance on future rate changes. Despite an initial lift in the Aussie, the pair faces technical resistance and broader market caution, particularly ahead of U.S. President Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement.
The Australian Dollar managed to recover from earlier-week losses, edging toward the 0.6270 level after two days of declines. The RBA’s neutral tone and Governor Michele Bullock’s statement that the board has not committed to a May rate change left the currency largely unchanged. However, risk sentiment remains fragile with concerns over Trump’s upcoming “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, which is expected to target key trading partners. These fresh tariff threats are clouding global growth expectations and, by extension, weighing on commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie.
Positive data from China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI provided some temporary support to AUD/USD, though the Federal Reserve’s policy stance continues to capture attention. With soft ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data, markets are ramping up expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in June. Additionally, CFTC data shows an increase in speculative bearish bets on the Aussie, signaling skepticism around its near-term outlook.
Technical Analysis: The AUD/USD recovery remains capped by technical resistance, with the pair unable to break key levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to show downside momentum, with red bars in the histogram indicating bearish continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), though rising, remains below the neutral 50 level, suggesting weak bullish momentum.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) improved but remains negative, indicating a tentative recovery. The pair is currently trapped in a narrow range between 0.6231 and 0.6282, with several key moving averages—the 10-day EMA, 20-day SMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA—aligned to the downside, reinforcing a bearish bias.
Immediate support is seen around 0.6267, while resistance lies at 0.6289, 0.6290, and 0.6292. Without a significant breakout, the pair is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with traders awaiting the US tariff announcement on Wednesday.
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