June 15th, Commerzbank said that the European Central Bank is widely expected to continue raising interest rates tonight, but this is unlikely to have much impact on the euro, but the ECB’s new inflation forecast may have a significant impact. Headline inflation forecasts for 2025 are likely to be revised downward to the ECB’s 2% target, while the Fed‘s forecasts on Thursday showed inflation in 2025 remaining at will be higher than 2%. This could lead to a pause in rate hikes in the eurozone in the near future. That could be a serious drag on the euro, especially after the Fed paused on Thursday while signaling two more hikes, Rechelt said.
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