CBA: The RBA has a High Probability of Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged in July and will Raise Interest Rates for the Last Time in August

Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia say this is likely to be another resolution that strikes a “delicate balance” and we expect the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.10% at its July meeting before a final hike in August.
The RBA had previously said that the views of policymakers at the June meeting had reached a “delicate balance” and that the rate hike was driven by upside risks to inflation.
Economists believe that the lower-than-expected monthly CPI data in May makes the July meeting risk inclined to suspend interest rate hikes, and predicts that the possibility of suspending interest rate hikes at the July meeting is 60%, and the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 40%.