CITIC Securities: It is Expected that the FED will Resume Raising Interest Rates in the Second Half of the Year with a High Probability

The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the inflation data in the United States in June was lower than expected, and the inflation process in the first half of the year was successfully completed; however, we expect that the base effect in the second half of the year will make the CPI year-on-year readings show stickiness, and the CPI may rebound year-on-year in July , and then continued to fluctuate around the 3% level.
It is expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July is still relatively high. Whether to raise interest rates in September and beyond still needs to observe the trend of subsequent employment and inflation data. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance within this year and will not cut interest rates throughout the year.
It is expected that the ten-year U.S. bond interest rate and the U.S. dollar index will remain weak and volatile in the short term, but there will be no significant downward trend. The rebound in U.S. stocks will continue, and may turn downward after recession expectations heat up.