Allianz’s Chief Economic Adviser Warns: Policy Lag Effects may Lead to U.S. Recession

Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor of Allianz, said in an interview with reporters that the inflation problem in the United States may last for several months or even a whole year, but the tight labor market, the recovery of the dollar and the recovery of the economy will be the key to the recovery of the US economy factor.
The rate hike cycle has had a big impact on commodities that are sensitive to changes in interest rates, which is what has pushed inflation down, coupled with a reversal in energy and food prices, especially for the US.
He believes that over the next 12 to 18 months, the lagged effect of Fed policy will continue to weigh on the economy, making a recession more likely.
The economy itself is strong and robust, but if policy is too tight, a recession is possible.
Care needs to be taken with market technicals and recessions cannot be predicted based on economic analysis alone.
The lagged effect of Fed policy could lead to a downturn in the economy.